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- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence (Jun)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Down Slightly
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 218,000 during the week ended June 16...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline While Prices Rise
The NAR U.S. existing home sales fell 0.4% (-3.0% y/y) during May to 5.430 million units (AR)...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Widens
The U.S. current account deficit rose to $124.1 billion during Q1 2018...
German PPI Sees Pressure, But Core Rate Is Much Less Affected
Germany has a history of being ‘unreasonable’ about inflation...
U.S. Housing Starts Recover to 11-Year High
Total housing starts rose 5.0% (20.3% y/y) during May to 1.350 million units (SAAR)...
by Tom Moeller June 7, 2005
Chain store sales rose a modest 0.4% during the opening week of June following three consecutive periods of decline according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The slim increase left sales 0.7% below the May average which rose 0.3% versus April.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC slipped 0.3% w/w (+0.8% y/y), the first decline in four weeks.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Last night's remarks by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan are available here.
Battle at Bond Bluff: Forecasters vs. Financial Markets from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 06/04/05 | 05/28/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 452.9 | 451.2 | 3.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
