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Economy in Brief
German PPI Rises at Nine-Month High Pace
The German PPI gained 0.2% in June on the heels of a 0.6% rise in May...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Improve
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (5.8% y/y) during June...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Tom Moeller June 2, 2005
Job cut announcements jumped in May, however, the 42.2% m/m rise did not reverse all of the prior month's plunge. Therefore, the three month average of job cut announcements fell further to the lowest level since last August.
During the last ten years there has been an 84% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements rose sharply m/m in the apparel (+234% y/y), computer (496% y/y) and insurance (321% y/y) industries but fell broadly elsewhere.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring plans fell for the second month in the last three.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | May | April | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 82,283 | 57,861 | 12.2% | 1,039,175 | 1,236,426 | 1,431,052 |
