Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
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- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 2, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 25,000 last week to 350,000, the highest level since late March. The prior week's level was revised up slightly and Consensus expectations had been for 325,000 claims.
The rise in claims was at least partially due to temporary auto industry layoffs not related to regular summer plant shutdowns for retooling.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 334,500 (-2.6% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance reversed all of the prior week's decline and rose 32,000 to the highest level in six weeks.
The insured unemployment rate remained stable at 2.0% for the sixth consecutive week.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/28/05 | 05/21/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 350 | 325 | 1.4% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,602 | -12.8% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |