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Economy in Brief
German PPI Rises at Nine-Month High Pace
The German PPI gained 0.2% in June on the heels of a 0.6% rise in May...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Improve
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (5.8% y/y) during June...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Tom Moeller June 1, 2005
After a reasonable start in May, chain store sales subsequently fell during the last three weeks according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Sales fell 1.0% last week and pulled the May average just 0.3% above April, half the gain during that month.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC did rise 0.2% w/w (0.5% y/y) pulling the monthly average up 0.4% versus April, the first monthly increase since February.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 05/28/05 | 05/21/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 451.2 | 455.9 | 3.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
