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Economy in Brief
U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in July; Deepest Since April 2020
Import prices fell 1.4% m/m (8.8% y/y) in July...
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 1, 2005
After a reasonable start in May, chain store sales subsequently fell during the last three weeks according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Sales fell 1.0% last week and pulled the May average just 0.3% above April, half the gain during that month.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC did rise 0.2% w/w (0.5% y/y) pulling the monthly average up 0.4% versus April, the first monthly increase since February.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 05/28/05 | 05/21/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 451.2 | 455.9 | 3.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |