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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 31, 2005
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell sharply in May. The 11.5 point decline to 54.1 was the steepest drop since 1974, nearly matched the record for a one month decline and pulled the index to its lowest since June 2003. Consensus expectations had been for a more moderate drop to 62.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of Chicago PMI and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
New orders and production posted the sharpest declines of the component series and the employment index fell to the lowest level since January. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices paid fell again to the lowest level since September 2003. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | May | April | May '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Barometer | 54.1 | 65.6 | 66.1 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
New Orders | 57.9 | 71.0 | 72.0 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
Prices Paid | 54.3 | 66.1 | 79.5 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |