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Economy in Brief

Consumer Confidence Rebounded
by Tom Moeller May 31, 2005

The May Index of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board rebounded much more than expected to 102.2. Confidence had fallen in each of the prior three months and Consensus expectations had been for another decline to 96.1.

During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.

Consumer expectations recovered nearly all of the prior month's sharp drop as expectations for jobs and business conditions rose.

The present situation index also recovered nearly all of the prior month's decline though jobs were viewed both as more plentiful and hard to get by a greater number of survey participants.

The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

Conference Board May April Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Consumer Confidence 102.2 97.5 9.8% 96.1 79.8 96.6
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