Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
- US: Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-final)
- Canada: Industrial Product Prices (Jan)
- UK: Motor Vehicle Production (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 27, 2005
The University of Michigan's reading of consumer sentiment for all of May did fall 0.9% from the prior month to 85.9 but that was better than the mid-month reading of a 2.7% decline. Consensus expectations had been for a level of 86.0.
Sentiment still is down in each of the last five months and is off 16.3% from the January '04 peak. During the last ten years there has been a 75% (inverse) correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.
The reading of current economic conditions recovered late in the month and rose for the first full month since January. Buying conditions for large household goods recovered sharply.
Consumer expectations recovered though expectations about personal finances remained depressed.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | May | April | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 86.9 | 87.7 | -3.7% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 104.9 | 104.4 | 1.3% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Consumer Expectations | 75.3 | 77.0 | -7.7% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |