Recent Updates
- Israel: Average Housing Prices (Q2)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in July; Deepest Since April 2020
Import prices fell 1.4% m/m (8.8% y/y) in July...
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 25, 2005
New orders for durable goods rebounded 1.9% in April following three consecutive months of decline. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.2% rise. Year to date orders are down 1.1%.
An 8.2% jump in orders for transportation equipment pulled the April total up and reflected a 28.2% (18.5% y/y) rise in nondefense aircraft & parts as well as a 3.4% (-5.0% y/y) gain in motor vehicles & parts. Less transportation durable orders fell 0.2% (+6.8% y/y), marking the third month of roughly sideways movement.
With a 3.8% jump, orders for non-defense capital goods recovered all of the prior month's decline. A 1.6% gain in orders less aircraft also recovered most of March's drop but that decline was lessened considerably. Computer & electronic product orders fell 5.8% (+6.8% y/y) following a 4.7% jump in March that was double the gain initially estimated. Machinery orders rose 2.2% and recovered nearly half the prior month's drop while electrical equipment orders rose 3.4% after two months of sharp decline.
Shipments of durables rose 1.6% (6.4% y/y). Orders outside of transportation increased 1.0% (8.3% y/y) due to a 1.5% (9.3% y/y) increase in machinery shipments and a 1.9% jump (5.2% y/y) in electrical equipment.
Durable inventories ticked just 0.1% (9.2% y/y) higher causing the I/S ratio to drop sharply. Less transportation the I/S ratio has moved sideways in a narrow range since early last year.
Unfilled orders were roughly unchanged (+6.2% y/y). The ratio of backlogs to shipments fell sharply to the low end of the year's range.
NAICS Classification | April | March | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durable Goods Orders | 1.9% | -1.6% | 4.3% | 10.8% | 2.6% | -1.7% |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.8% | -3.2% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 5.6% | -7.2% |
Excluding Aircraft | 1.6% | -1.6% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 6.6% | -7.1% |