Recent Updates
- Australia: Sydney and Melbourne Labor Force Summary (Jan)
- Japan: Input Output Prices (Jan)
- US: New Residential Sales, Final Building Permits (Jan)
- Belgium: Employment Indexes (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline as Interest Rates Continue to Increase
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index declined 11.4%...
French Sectors Show Minor Recovery from Pre-Covid19 Levels
French industry climate improved in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases in February
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.7% (-31.1% y/y) to 91.3 during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Rise Markedly
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index increased 1.1% m/m in December...
U.S. Energy Prices Surge as Texas Freeze Limits Supply
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.63 per gallon (6.8% y/y) in the week ended February 22...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 25, 2005
New orders for durable goods rebounded 1.9% in April following three consecutive months of decline. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.2% rise. Year to date orders are down 1.1%.
An 8.2% jump in orders for transportation equipment pulled the April total up and reflected a 28.2% (18.5% y/y) rise in nondefense aircraft & parts as well as a 3.4% (-5.0% y/y) gain in motor vehicles & parts. Less transportation durable orders fell 0.2% (+6.8% y/y), marking the third month of roughly sideways movement.
With a 3.8% jump, orders for non-defense capital goods recovered all of the prior month's decline. A 1.6% gain in orders less aircraft also recovered most of March's drop but that decline was lessened considerably. Computer & electronic product orders fell 5.8% (+6.8% y/y) following a 4.7% jump in March that was double the gain initially estimated. Machinery orders rose 2.2% and recovered nearly half the prior month's drop while electrical equipment orders rose 3.4% after two months of sharp decline.
Shipments of durables rose 1.6% (6.4% y/y). Orders outside of transportation increased 1.0% (8.3% y/y) due to a 1.5% (9.3% y/y) increase in machinery shipments and a 1.9% jump (5.2% y/y) in electrical equipment.
Durable inventories ticked just 0.1% (9.2% y/y) higher causing the I/S ratio to drop sharply. Less transportation the I/S ratio has moved sideways in a narrow range since early last year.
Unfilled orders were roughly unchanged (+6.2% y/y). The ratio of backlogs to shipments fell sharply to the low end of the year's range.
NAICS Classification | April | March | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durable Goods Orders | 1.9% | -1.6% | 4.3% | 10.8% | 2.6% | -1.7% |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.8% | -3.2% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 5.6% | -7.2% |
Excluding Aircraft | 1.6% | -1.6% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 6.6% | -7.1% |