Recent Updates
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Aug)
- US: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Aug)
- Canada: Wholesale trade, MSIO (June)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (JUL)
- US: Empire State Mfg Survey (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley May 24, 2005
Details of Germany's first quarter Gross Domestic Product were released today. Total growth in the economy was 1%, the same as the Flash Estimate of two weeks ago. The detailed data show that domestic demand continued to be weak. It declined 0.56% in the first quarter after a similar decline in the fourth quarter of 2004. Consumption declined by 0.18% but gross investment, including inventories and the acquisition less disposal of valuables, declined 2.32%. Fixed investment, alone, was down 1.66% suggesting substantial inventory liquidation.
Exports continued to increase--2.90%--and with a decline--1.36%--in imports, the strength in the foreign sector managed to overcome the weakness in the domestic sector, resulting in the modest 1.0% gain for the whole economy. The quarter-to-quarter percent change in total GDP, along with the quarter-to-quarter change in domestic demand is shown in the first chart.
Among the institutional investors and financial analysts, who participate in the ZEW survey (also released today), the optimists are losing heart. In March of this year the percent balance between those who expected improvement in the economy over the next six months and those who expected a worsening was 36.3% That margin dropped to 20.1% in April and to 13.7% in May. The percent balance between optimists and pessimists is shown in the second chart together with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Percent Change in German GDP and Components | Q1 05 | Q4 04 | Q3 04 | Q2 04 | Q1 04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1.04 | -0.14 | -1.04 | 0.20 | 0.43 | 1.04 | -0.01 | 0.20 |
Domestic Demand | -0.56 | -0.54 | 1.31 | -0.29 | -0.61 | 0.05 | 0.73 | -1.76 |
Consumption | -0.18 | 0.24 | 0.41 | 0.22 | -0.64 | -0.50 | -0.12 | 0.09 |
Total Investment | -2.32 | -3.85 | 5.37 | -0.67 | -0.47 | 2.52 | 3.41 | -9.15 |
Fixed Investment | -1.66 | 0.30 | 0.52 | 0.07 | -3.07 | -1.82 | -1.66 | -5.92 |
Exports | 2.90 | 1.14 | -1.01 | 3.27 | 3.48 | 7.96 | 1.68 | 4.62 |
Imports | -1.36 | 0.15 | 2.74 | 2.26 | 0.81 | 5.84 | 4.18 | -0.94 |