Chain store sales slipped for the second week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. A 0.2% decline last week followed the 1.0% drop during the prior period. Sales so far in May remained 0.6% above April when sales rose 0.6% versus March.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC was unchanged w/w (0.1% y/y) and is up 0.4% in May versus April.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.