Recent Updates
- Australia: Job Vacancy Report (Sep)
- China: Beijing PPI (Q3)
- Markit PMI: Manufacturing Survey - Australia (Sep)
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence (Oct), ECB Banking Lending Survey (Q4)
- US: Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg Business Outlook (Oct); Richmond Fed Mfg & Service Sector Surveys (Oct)
- Spain: Bank Lending Survey (Q4), International Trade Summary, Construction Permits (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Ease
Gasoline prices fell four cents last week to an average $2.84 per gallon (+14.6% y/y)...
German PPI Makes Sharp Gain on Rising Energy Costs
The German PPI rose by a strong 0.6% in September, but the PPI excluding energy gained just 0.1%...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Fall Further
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index declined 1.3% during the last four weeks...
Japan’s METI Sector Indexes Rebound But Still Lag
Japan's economy continues to fight for revival...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Weaken, Dragging Down Prices
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes during September declined 3.4% to 5.150 million...
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2005
In April the National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago improved to 0.10 from a downwardly revised -0.04 in March.
The figures left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at 0.08, its lowest since 2003. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
M2 and "Reigniting Inflation" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Chicago Fed | April | March | April '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.10 | -0.04 | 0.47 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
