Recent Updates
- Australia: PSI (May)
- Australia: PSI by State (May)
- Brunei: International Trade (Mar)
- US: Intl Trade with Revisions, Productivity & Costs (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Revised Up for Q1'20
Output per hour revised up on weaker hours worked...
State & Pandemic Assistance Continuing Claims Total 32.5 Million
Initial jobless claims decreased to a still extremely-elevated 1.877 million in the week ending May 30...
Euro Area Retail Sales Fall Again
Euro area retail sales fell sharply again, dropping by 11.7% in April...
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Activity Index Rebounds in May
Service sector business improves moderately...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Declines Moderate During May
Nonfarm private payrolls during May declined 2.760 million (-16.6% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2005
In April the National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago improved to 0.10 from a downwardly revised -0.04 in March.
The figures left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at 0.08, its lowest since 2003. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
M2 and "Reigniting Inflation" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Chicago Fed | April | March | April '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.10 | -0.04 | 0.47 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
