Recent Updates
- Japan: ** Japan's consumption activity index rebased from 2010=100 to 2011=100.**
- US: Existing Home Sales Detail (Mar)
- UAE: CPI (Mar), Dubai GDP (Q4); Lebanon: CPI (Mar); Israel: PMI (Mar), Quantity of New Dwellings Demanded (Feb); Palestine: Public Debt (Mar-Prelim); Saudi Arabia: Real Estate Price Index (Q1)
- Canada: Wholesale Trade (Feb)
- US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Selectively
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.4% during the last four weeks...
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2005
In April the National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago improved to 0.10 from a downwardly revised -0.04 in March.
The figures left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at 0.08, its lowest since 2003. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
M2 and "Reigniting Inflation" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Chicago Fed | April | March | April '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.10 | -0.04 | 0.47 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
