Recent Updates
- Bosnia: CPI (Dec)
- Canada: Wholesale Trade, MSIO (Nov)
- Canada Regional: Wholesale Trade, MSIO by Province (Nov)
- US: Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg Business Outlook Survey (Jan)
- Hungary: Wages (Nov), Fostered Workers, Social Security Balance (Dec), Maturity Profile of Central Government Debt (Q4)
- Ireland: PPI, WPI (Dec), Personal Bankruptcy (Q4)
- Mexico: Employment (Dec)
- Budget Implementation (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Treasury Statement, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Slumps Again in January
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level slumped further to -0.2 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Celebrates 100 Years With An Increase
In the 100th anniversary of it release, industrial production rose a greater-than-expected 0.3% (3.9% year-on-year) during December...
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2005
In April the National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago improved to 0.10 from a downwardly revised -0.04 in March.
The figures left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at 0.08, its lowest since 2003. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
M2 and "Reigniting Inflation" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Chicago Fed | April | March | April '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.10 | -0.04 | 0.47 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
