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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone May 18, 2005
Perhaps it goes without saying that energy production is a major part of the Norwegian economy. But balance of trade data, which were reported today for April, underscore that fact dramatically. The total balance of trade is seen to be a surplus of NKr27.6 billion in April, up from March's NKr25.9 billion and a monthly average of NKr20.1 billion. The petroleum sector more than accounts for the surplus, as apart from it, the trade accounts run deficits, the latest at NKr7.3 billion. The energy sector exports were NKr22.0 billion in April, a little more than 61% of total exports.
"Energy sector" is a term we apply to the Central Statistics Bureau's listing of "crude oil, natural gas, ships and oil platforms". Norway is unusual among oil exporting nations in also constructing the transportation equipment and the water-borne drilling rigs. In April, these exports were a mere NKr28 million, but when even a single rig or ship is delivered, these exports can spike to NKr2 or 3 billion.
The price of energy, of course, also plays a major role in the reported amount of energy-related exports and thence the overall trade surplus. In the second chart, the close comparison is readily apparent. There, we used the balance of trade converted to US$, plotted with the price of Brent crude. The correlation is a very tight 91%. The correlation with the balance expressed in Kroner is still 84%.
Data for Norway are included in Haver's "NORDIC" and "G10" databases. Conversions to US dollars and some seasonal adjustment is performed in the series contained in G10/Norway.
Norway Millions NKr |
Apr 2005 | Mar 2005 | Apr 2004 | Monthly Averages|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 | 2003 | 2002 | ||||
Trade Balance | 27,605 | 25,943 | 20,326 | 20,133 | 16,639 | 16,377 |
ex Energy Sector* | -7,264 | -6,632 | -6,771 | -7,876 | -6,314 | -5,751 |
Exports | 57,081 | 54,166 | 44,956 | 47,298 | 40,245 | 39,413 |
ex Energy Sector* | 22,045 | 21,433 | 17,816 | 18,809 | 16,800 | 16,663 |
Kroner/US$ | 6.3199 | 6.1972 | 6.9242 | 6.7412 | 7.0800 | 7.9839 |