Recent Updates

  • US: GDP by Industry (Q1)
  • Canada: Retail Trade (May), CPI (Jun)
  • Thailand: Trade (Jun); China: Loans from Financial Institutions (Jun); Korea: Trade in Goods (Jun); Taiwan: Export Orders (Jun)
  • Turkey: NCI Index (Jul)
  • Turkey: Established & Liquidated (Jun-Press); Morocco: CPI, Public Finance (Jun)
  • Spain: Workers Affected by Layoffs (Apr); Foreign Trade (May)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

OECD Leaders Lost More Forward Momentum
by Tom Moeller May 12, 2005

The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies fell for the second month. The 0.6% decline in March followed a downwardly revised 0.5% drop in February and pulled the index's six month growth rate negative.

During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.

The leaders for the European Union (15 countries) declined for the fourth straight month and the six month growth rate of 0.1% was down from roughly 6% a year ago. The German leaders fell for the fifth month in the last six due to weaker new orders, a negative yield curve and a worsening business climate. The six month growth rate fell to a -1.7%. The French leaders fell for the fifth consecutive month and the six month growth went negative for the first time since May 2003 as new job vacancies remained depressed, share prices meandered and industrial sector prospects deteriorated. The Italian leaders dipped for the forth month in five. The six month growth rate of -0.6% remained negative as it has since last May due to a lower future tendency of orders books and of production.

The leading index for the US economy fell a hard 1.0% and six month growth went negative for the first time since April 2003. A negative yield curve and a deteriorating business climate indicator caused the decline. The leaders for Japan fell for the fourth straight month and six month growth was a negative 0.7% due to a tighter yield curve and fewer overtime hours worked.

The UK economic leaders slipped for the fifth consecutive month with six month growth solidly negative at -1.2% due to higher interest rates and weaker export prospects.The Canadian leaders have trended lower for a year and six month growth of -3.5% was the worst in two years. The yield curve is sharply inverted and housing starts are down.

The latest OECD Leading Indicator report can be found here.

OECD March Feb Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Composite Leading Index  101.37 102.00 -0.6% 101.99 97.51 96.33
 6 Month Growth Rate -1.3% -0.1%   3.6% 2.5% 2.3%
close
large image