Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
- Serbia: PPI (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 12, 2005
The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies fell for the second month. The 0.6% decline in March followed a downwardly revised 0.5% drop in February and pulled the index's six month growth rate negative.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
The leaders for the European Union (15 countries) declined for the fourth straight month and the six month growth rate of 0.1% was down from roughly 6% a year ago. The German leaders fell for the fifth month in the last six due to weaker new orders, a negative yield curve and a worsening business climate. The six month growth rate fell to a -1.7%. The French leaders fell for the fifth consecutive month and the six month growth went negative for the first time since May 2003 as new job vacancies remained depressed, share prices meandered and industrial sector prospects deteriorated. The Italian leaders dipped for the forth month in five. The six month growth rate of -0.6% remained negative as it has since last May due to a lower future tendency of orders books and of production.
The leading index for the US economy fell a hard 1.0% and six month growth went negative for the first time since April 2003. A negative yield curve and a deteriorating business climate indicator caused the decline. The leaders for Japan fell for the fourth straight month and six month growth was a negative 0.7% due to a tighter yield curve and fewer overtime hours worked.
The UK economic leaders slipped for the fifth consecutive month with six month growth solidly negative at -1.2% due to higher interest rates and weaker export prospects.The Canadian leaders have trended lower for a year and six month growth of -3.5% was the worst in two years. The yield curve is sharply inverted and housing starts are down.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report can be found here.
OECD | March | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Leading Index | 101.37 | 102.00 | -0.6% | 101.99 | 97.51 | 96.33 |
6 Month Growth Rate | -1.3% | -0.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% |