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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller May 11, 2005
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved unexpectedly in March to $55.0B from the little revised record of $60.6B in February. Consensus expectations had been for a $61.5B deficit.
Total exports jumped 1.5% following two months of little change. Goods exports surged 1.4% (6.9% y/y) on the strength of a 6.6% increase in foods, feeds & beverages and a 3.3% (4.7% y/y) rise in capital goods. Exports of advanced technology products jumped 31.3% (NSA, +2.9% y/y).
In other categories export performance paled. Exports of non-auto consumer goods were unchanged (9.8% y/y) after a 3.1% spike in February and automotive exports fell 1.2% (+7.0% y/y), down for the second month.
Services exports rose 1.8% (7.7% y/y) as passenger fares jumped 3.9% 14.5% y/y) and spending on travel surged 2.8% (10.8% y/y).
Total imports slumped 2.5% despite a 4.1% (32.4% y/y) rise in petroleum products. The average price of crude oil surged 11.6% to $41.14 per bbl. (34.3% y/y). Imports of non-petroleum goods fell 4.6% (+4.7% y/y) as capital goods imports fell 1.1% (+8.3% y/y) for the second monthly decline and nonauto consumer goods imports plunged 6.8% (+4.5% y/y).
The US trade deficit with China improved for the second month to $12.9B ($162.0B in 2004) as exports surged (-2.0% y/y) and imports fell (+17.4% y/y). The US trade deficit with Japan deepened further to $7.8B ($75.2B in 2004) but the monthly trade deficit with the Asian NICs nearly dissolved ($21.9B in 2004) due to a 22.1% surge in exports (3.8% y/y). The US trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $9.3B ($110.0B in 2004), the result of an 11.7% jump in imports (+1.0% y/y) which outpaced a 12.7% (4.8% y/y) rise in exports.
Are We Underestimating the Gains from Globalization for the United States? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
The Evolution and Implications of the U.S. Current Account Deficit from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found here.
Unwinding the Current Account Deficit from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be viewed here.
| Foreign Trade | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $55.0.0B | $60.6B | $47.1B (3/04) | $617.1B | $496.5B | $421.7B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 1.5% | 0.2% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 4.6% | -3.1% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | -2.5% | 1.5% | 10.3% | 16.3% | 8.5% | 2.1% |
