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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves
The NAHB -Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose to 58 during January...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Strengthen
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index increased 13.5% (1.4% y/y) during the week ended January 11...
EMU Inflation Pokes Above 2% Then Dives
Inflation in the EMU, in its largest economies, and in the U.K., remains subdued...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline Led by Lower Energy Costs
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology fell 0.2% during December...
by Tom Moeller May 5, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose further last week. The 11,000 increase to 333,000 followed an upwardly revised gain of 23,000 the week prior. Consensus expectations had been for 325,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims nevertheless fell to 321,500 (-6.9% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance gained back 38,000 of a deepened 80,000 drop the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate held at 2.0%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/30/05 | 04/23/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 333 | 322 | 1.2% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,589 | -11.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
