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Economy in Brief
Japan's Inflation Shows Mixed Gains
Japan's inflation rose by 0.4% in July...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in July
Existing home sales declined 5.9% (-20.2% y/y) in July to 4.810 million units...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 5, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose further last week. The 11,000 increase to 333,000 followed an upwardly revised gain of 23,000 the week prior. Consensus expectations had been for 325,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims nevertheless fell to 321,500 (-6.9% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance gained back 38,000 of a deepened 80,000 drop the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate held at 2.0%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/30/05 | 04/23/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 333 | 322 | 1.2% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,589 | -11.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
