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Economy in Brief
German PPI Rises at Nine-Month High Pace
The German PPI gained 0.2% in June on the heels of a 0.6% rise in May...
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The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (5.8% y/y) during June...
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The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Tom Moeller May 3, 2005
Chain store sales gained 0.5% during the final week of April according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The increase raised the average of sales in April 0.4% versus March when sales fell 0.2%.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC ticked 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) higher, the third consecutive weekly rise following three declines.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Reexamining the Consumption-Wealth Relationship: The Role of Uncertainty from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 04/30/05 | 04/23/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 458.0 | 455.8 | 3.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
