Recent Updates
- US: Public Debt (Feb), Mfrs' Shipments Inventories & Orders (Jan), Productivity & Costs with Revisions (Q4)
- Global Sector PMIs (Feb)
- Canada: Labor Productivity & Unit Labor Cost (Q4)
- Philippines: Int'l Reserves & Foreign Currency Liquidity (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 2, 2005
The April Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector compiled by the Institute of Supply Management fell unexpectedly to 53.3. The index has fallen steadily from the peak of 62.8 roughly one year ago. Consensus expectations had been for stability in April at 55.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
The new orders (53.7) component more than reversed the slight gain in March and fell to the lowest level in nearly two years but the index of export orders (57.2) recovered about all of the March decline. The employment index (52.3) fell for the third straight month to the lowest since November 2003. During the last twenty years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the ISM Employment Index and the three month growth in factory sector employment.
The production index ticked higher but vendor deliveries and inventories fell.
The prices paid index fell after the sharp rise in March.
ISM Manufacturing Survey | April | March | April '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Index | 53.3 | 55.2 | 62.3 | 60.5 | 53.3 | 52.4 |
New Orders Index | 53.7 | 57.1 | 65.8 | 63.5 | 57.9 | 56.5 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 71.0 | 73.0 | 88.0 | 79.8 | 59.6 | 57.6 |