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Economy in Brief
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in July; Deepest Since April 2020
Import prices fell 1.4% m/m (8.8% y/y) in July...
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 29, 2005
The April Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer gave back more than half of the prior month's 6.5 point jump. Nevertheless, the level of 65.6 was above Consensus expectations for 62.5 and the average level so far this year is up from 2004.
The employment index gave back less than half the prior month's surge. During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment. The new orders and the production indexes fell a bit harder.
The index of prices paid fell again to the lowest level since late 2003. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | April | March | April '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Barometer | 65.6 | 69.2 | 64.2 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
New Orders | 71.0 | 76.7 | 65.8 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
Prices Paid | 66.1 | 68.2 | 75.5 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |