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Economy in Brief
German PPI Rises at Nine-Month High Pace
The German PPI gained 0.2% in June on the heels of a 0.6% rise in May...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Improve
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.5% (5.8% y/y) during June...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Tom Moeller April 29, 2005
The April Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer gave back more than half of the prior month's 6.5 point jump. Nevertheless, the level of 65.6 was above Consensus expectations for 62.5 and the average level so far this year is up from 2004.
The employment index gave back less than half the prior month's surge. During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment. The new orders and the production indexes fell a bit harder.
The index of prices paid fell again to the lowest level since late 2003. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | April | March | April '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 65.6 | 69.2 | 64.2 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
| New Orders | 71.0 | 76.7 | 65.8 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
| Prices Paid | 66.1 | 68.2 | 75.5 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |
