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Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 29, 2005
The University of Michigan's reading of consumer sentiment for all of April fell 5.3% from March to 87.7. The decline contrasted to Consensus expectations for a slightly firmer reading of 89.0.
Sentiment has fallen in each of the last four months and is off 15.5% from the January '04 peak. During the last ten years there has been a 75% (inverse) correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the unemployment rate.
Consumer expectations added to the decline earlier in the month and dropped 7.0%, down for the fourth straight month. The expected change in real family income fell 12.2% to the lowest level since 1991. More unemployment was expected by the highest percentage since late 2003 and price inflation was expected to quicken.
The reading of current economic conditions fell 3.3%, a slight improvement from the mid-month reading.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 87.7 | 92.6 | -6.9% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 104.4 | 108.0 | -0.6% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Consumer Expectations | 77.0 | 82.8 | -11.8% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |