Recent Updates
- China: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 29, 2005
Personal income in March topped Consensus expectations and rose 0.5% following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in February. Disposable personal income also rose 0.5% (5.8% y/y) although when adjusted for price inflation take home pay was unchanged m/m (3.3% y/y).
Wage & salary income rose 0.3% (5.8% y/y) following an upwardly revised like gain in February. Wages in service producing industries rose 0.4% (6.4% y/y) however factory sector wages fell 0.2% (5.8% y/y), the first decline in four months.
Personal consumption increased 0.6% and beat expectations for a 0.4% gain while February's increase was revised up. Durable goods spending jumped 2.2% (5.2% y/y) as spending on motor vehicles advanced 6.2% (7.5% y/y).
Nondurables spending fell slightly even though spending on gasoline & oil rose 6.4% (16.7% y/y), all a function of a 7.6% (20.2% y/y) rise prices. Spending on clothing fell 2.3% (+1.9% y/y). Services spending rose 0.6% (6.1% y/y) as the cost of household operation, including utilities, rose 1.7% (10.3% y/y).
The personal savings rate fell to 0.4%. The low number compares to the net worth of the household sector (from the flow of funds accounts) which has been rising. Total net worth was 5.5 times disposable income in 4Q04, up 10% versus the lows of two years earlier. The gain was powered by a 23.5% rise in the owners equity in real estate over those two years.
The PCE chain price index rose 0.5% and less food & energy, the 0.3% m/m increase pulled the y/y gain back to its highest level since early 2003.
Disposition of Personal Income | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.5% | 0.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
Personal Consumption | 0.6% | 0.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% |
Savings Rate | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.5% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
Less food & energy | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% |