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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline as Interest Rates Continue to Increase
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index declined 11.4%...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases in February
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.7% (-31.1% y/y) to 91.3 during February...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Rise Markedly
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index increased 1.1% m/m in December...
U.S. Energy Prices Surge as Texas Freeze Limits Supply
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.63 per gallon (6.8% y/y) in the week ended February 22...
EMU HICP Makes First Year-on-Year Rise since July
The EMU headline rose by 0.8% in January, its first year-on-year gain in six months...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 28, 2005
Initial unemployment insurance claims last week recovered 21,000 of the lessened 33,000 decline the prior period. The level of 320,000 equaled Consensus expectations.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell sharply to 323,000 (-7.2% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped a sharp 76,000 to the lowest level since March of 2001.
The insured unemployment rate slipped to 2.0%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/23/05 | 04/16/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 320 | 299 | -5.9% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,555 | -15.1% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
