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- US: Employment Situation (May)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Continues to Decline
Cautious spending breeds less credit usage...
German Orders Plunge in April
Germany's orders plunged in April, falling by 25.8% m/m...
U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens; Exports & Imports Fall by Record Amounts in April
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $49.41 billion during April...
U.S. Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Revised Up for Q1'20
Output per hour revised up on weaker hours worked...
State & Pandemic Assistance Continuing Claims Total 32.5 Million
Initial jobless claims decreased to a still extremely-elevated 1.877 million in the week ending May 30...
Special Topics
by Tom Moeller April 28, 2005
Initial unemployment insurance claims last week recovered 21,000 of the lessened 33,000 decline the prior period. The level of 320,000 equaled Consensus expectations.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell sharply to 323,000 (-7.2% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped a sharp 76,000 to the lowest level since March of 2001.
The insured unemployment rate slipped to 2.0%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/23/05 | 04/16/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 320 | 299 | -5.9% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,555 | -15.1% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
