Recent Updates
- New Zealand: Value of Building Work Put in Place by Region (Q4)
- New Zealand: Value of Building Work Put in Place (Q4)
- US: Public Debt (Feb), Mfrs' Shipments Inventories & Orders (Jan), Productivity & Costs with Revisions (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley April 26, 2005
The latest monthly data and results of the most recent quarterly survey of industrial trends were released today by the CBI (Confederation of British Industries). Britain's manufacturing sector has been depressed for some time, as evidence by the first chart showing the monthly percent balances of increases less decreases in new orders. Rarely have increases in orders outweighed decreases and then only by a very small margin.
There is little comfort in the monthly data for the sector. The percent balance of decreases over increases in new orders in April of 24% is the largest since November, 2003.
Nor is the survey encouraging. While the survey revealed that the respondents were slightly less pessimistic in the current quarter compared to the first quarter, they were generally more pessimistic concerning the current status and outlook for new orders, output, prices and unit costs. The percent balances for new orders and output over the past three months are shown in the second chart.
Although the manufacturing share of gross value added has declined from 24% in 1985 to 16% in 2004, a slowdown in manufacturing activity should have a significant impact on growth of the total economy.
% Balance* | Q2 05 | Q1 05 | Q2 04 | Q/Q Dif | Y/Y Dif | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Optimism re business conditions | -15 | -22 | 12 | 7 | -27 | 7 | -17 | -6 |
New orders past 3 months | -18 | -4 | 18 | -14 | -36 | 9 | -16 | -14 |
New orders next 3 months | -17 | -4 | 12 | -13 | -29 | 5 | -21 | -14 |
Output past 3 months | -10 | 2 | 15 | -12 | -25 | 11 | -12 | -13 |
Output next 3 months | 5 | 10 | 12 | -5 | -7 | 13 | 4 | 5 |
Unit costs past 3 months | 32 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 9 | 3 | -4 |
Unit costs next 3 months | 18 | 19 | 5 | -1 | 13 | 7 | -1 | -7 |
Prices past 3 months | 12 | 11 | -3 | 1 | 15 | -4 | -16 | -26 |
Prices past 3 months | 5 | 19 | 2 | -14 | 3 | 3 | -10-13 | |
Apr 05 | Mar 05 | Apr 04 | M/M Dif | Y/Y Dif | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | |
Total orders | -24 | -13 | 14 | -11 | -10 | -9 | -29 | -27 |
Stock of finished goods | 18 | 13 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 16 |
Vol. of output next 3 months | 5 | 9 | 12 | -4 | -7 | 12 | -3 | 5 |
Ave prices of domestic orders next 3 months | 5 | 9 | 2 | -4 | 3 | 4 | -12 | -13 |