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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
U.S. Housing Starts Weaken Unexpectedly
Total housing starts declined 12.3% (-4.2% y/y) during June to 1.173 million (AR)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Reverse Earlier Increase
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index declined 2.5% last week (-12.8% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller April 26, 2005
Chain store sales dipped 0.3% last week following a 1.0% pop the week earlier according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. With one week to go, the average of sales in April is 0.5% higher than during March.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 0.6% (0.6% y/y), the largest gain in ten weeks.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Imbalances in the U.S. Economy from Federal Reserve Board Governor Donald L. Kohn can be found here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 04/23/05 | 04/16/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 455.8 | 457.4 | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
