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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Dipped
by Tom Moeller April 26, 2005

Chain store sales dipped 0.3% last week following a 1.0% pop the week earlier according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. With one week to go, the average of sales in April is 0.5% higher than during March.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 0.6% (0.6% y/y), the largest gain in ten weeks.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

Imbalances in the U.S. Economy from Federal Reserve Board Governor Donald L. Kohn can be found here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 04/23/05 04/16/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 455.8 457.4 4.0% 4.6% 2.9% 3.6%
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