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Economy in Brief
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in July; Deepest Since April 2020
Import prices fell 1.4% m/m (8.8% y/y) in July...
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 26, 2005
The Conference Board's April Index of Consumer Confidence about matched Consensus expectations and fell a sharp 5.1% to 97.7 from an upwardly revised March level. It was the steepest one month decline since last August and pulled Confidence to the lowest level since November.
During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
The April index of consumer expectations dropped sharply to the lowest level since August 2003. Expectations continued to grow that in six months there would be fewer jobs.
The present situation index fell (+25.7% y/y) for the first month in the last six. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 23.3% of survey participants, down from the late 2003 high of 35.1%.
The Conference Boards survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
Conference Board | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence | 97.7 | 103.0 | 5.1% | 96.1 | 79.8 | 96.6 |