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Economy in Brief

Consumer Confidence Fell Due To Worsened Job Outlook
by Tom Moeller April 26, 2005

The Conference Board's April Index of Consumer Confidence about matched Consensus expectations and fell a sharp 5.1% to 97.7 from an upwardly revised March level. It was the steepest one month decline since last August and pulled Confidence to the lowest level since November.

During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.

The April index of consumer expectations dropped sharply to the lowest level since August 2003. Expectations continued to grow that in six months there would be fewer jobs.

The present situation index fell (+25.7% y/y) for the first month in the last six. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 23.3% of survey participants, down from the late 2003 high of 35.1%.

The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

Conference Board April Mar Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Consumer Confidence 97.7 103.0 5.1% 96.1 79.8 96.6
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