Recent Updates
- UK: National Insurance Number Allocations (Q3), Capital Issuance, Motor Vehicle Production, Average Precipitation (Oct), BoE Balance Sheets (Nov)
- Russia: Nonresident Holdings of Government Debt (Oct)
- Belarus: New Hires and Terminations (Oct)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 21, 2005
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell to 0.11 in March, the lowest level since last September.A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The decline lowered the three-month moving average of the CFNAI to 0.17, its lowest since November.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
The latest Beige Book covering regional economic activity from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.
| Chicago Fed | Mar | Feb | Mar '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.67 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
