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- US: Final Building Permits (Mar)
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- UK: HM Property Transactions, Public Sector Finances (Mar), CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr, Q2), Overseas Holding (Q4)
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Economy in Brief
PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
In the EMU, both the services and manufacturing sectors took a substantial step down one month ago...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Selectively
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.4% during the last four weeks...
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
by Tom Moeller April 21, 2005
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell to 0.11 in March, the lowest level since last September.A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The decline lowered the three-month moving average of the CFNAI to 0.17, its lowest since November.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
The latest Beige Book covering regional economic activity from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.
| Chicago Fed | Mar | Feb | Mar '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.67 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
