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Economy in Brief
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 21, 2005
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell to 0.11 in March, the lowest level since last September.A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The decline lowered the three-month moving average of the CFNAI to 0.17, its lowest since November.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories & orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available here.
The latest Beige Book covering regional economic activity from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.
| Chicago Fed | Mar | Feb | Mar '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.67 | 0.39 | -0.11 | -0.40 |
