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- US: Monthly Treasury Statement, Wholesale Trade (Jun), Consumer Prices (Jul)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
OECD LEIs Point to a Ramp Down in Growth - and Nothing More
The OECD metrics this month show a broad tendency for growth to slow down...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 20, 2005
Consumer Prices (CPI-U) rose 0.6% in March versus Consensus expectations for a 0.5% rise.Prices less food & energy rose 0.4%, double expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Energy prices doubled the prior month's increase with a 4.0% gain fueled by a 7.9% (16.8% y/y) jump in gasoline prices. In April gasoline prices have moved higher to an average $2.25 per gallon versus $2.08 in March although in the latest week prices backed off the high of $2.28. Fuel oil prices rose 4.6% (28.2% y/y) but natural gas & electricity prices fell 0.3% (+6.4% y/y).
Services price inflation firmed further last month. Less energy, the 0.5% gain in March was the strongest since November 2001. Shelter prices doubled the prior month's increase with a 0.6% (3.0% y/y) rise and medical care services prices again popped 0.6% (5.0% y/y). Public transportation prices surged 1.3% (0.2% y/y) following three months of flat-to-down movement and school tuition firmed further with a 0.6% (6.4% y/y) rise.
Core goods price inflation again was tame owing to a 0.4% (+0.9%) decline in new vehicle prices, a 0.7% decline (NSA, -15.2% y/y) in computer prices, no change in furniture prices (0.3% y/y) and no change in medical care commodities (2.2% y/y). Apparel prices, however, firmed and rose 0.8% (0.0% y/y).
Food prices rose 0.2%s. Fruit & vegetable prices declined for the fourth straight month (+1.6% y/y) and meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases jumped 0.7%. Core chain prices rose 0.5%.
Has the Bond Market Forgotten Oil? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Consumer Price Index | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.6% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | 4.0% | 2.0% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
