Recent Updates
- Taiwan: Manufacturing PMI, Non-manufacturing PMI (Feb)
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- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 20, 2005
Consumer Prices (CPI-U) rose 0.6% in March versus Consensus expectations for a 0.5% rise.Prices less food & energy rose 0.4%, double expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Energy prices doubled the prior month's increase with a 4.0% gain fueled by a 7.9% (16.8% y/y) jump in gasoline prices. In April gasoline prices have moved higher to an average $2.25 per gallon versus $2.08 in March although in the latest week prices backed off the high of $2.28. Fuel oil prices rose 4.6% (28.2% y/y) but natural gas & electricity prices fell 0.3% (+6.4% y/y).
Services price inflation firmed further last month. Less energy, the 0.5% gain in March was the strongest since November 2001. Shelter prices doubled the prior month's increase with a 0.6% (3.0% y/y) rise and medical care services prices again popped 0.6% (5.0% y/y). Public transportation prices surged 1.3% (0.2% y/y) following three months of flat-to-down movement and school tuition firmed further with a 0.6% (6.4% y/y) rise.
Core goods price inflation again was tame owing to a 0.4% (+0.9%) decline in new vehicle prices, a 0.7% decline (NSA, -15.2% y/y) in computer prices, no change in furniture prices (0.3% y/y) and no change in medical care commodities (2.2% y/y). Apparel prices, however, firmed and rose 0.8% (0.0% y/y).
Food prices rose 0.2%s. Fruit & vegetable prices declined for the fourth straight month (+1.6% y/y) and meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases jumped 0.7%. Core chain prices rose 0.5%.
Has the Bond Market Forgotten Oil? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Consumer Price Index | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.6% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | 4.0% | 2.0% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
