Recent Updates
- UK: National Insurance Number Allocations (Q3), Capital Issuance, Motor Vehicle Production, Average Precipitation (Oct), BoE Balance Sheets (Nov)
- Russia: Nonresident Holdings of Government Debt (Oct)
- Belarus: New Hires and Terminations (Oct)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 20, 2005
Consumer Prices (CPI-U) rose 0.6% in March versus Consensus expectations for a 0.5% rise.Prices less food & energy rose 0.4%, double expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Energy prices doubled the prior month's increase with a 4.0% gain fueled by a 7.9% (16.8% y/y) jump in gasoline prices. In April gasoline prices have moved higher to an average $2.25 per gallon versus $2.08 in March although in the latest week prices backed off the high of $2.28. Fuel oil prices rose 4.6% (28.2% y/y) but natural gas & electricity prices fell 0.3% (+6.4% y/y).
Services price inflation firmed further last month. Less energy, the 0.5% gain in March was the strongest since November 2001. Shelter prices doubled the prior month's increase with a 0.6% (3.0% y/y) rise and medical care services prices again popped 0.6% (5.0% y/y). Public transportation prices surged 1.3% (0.2% y/y) following three months of flat-to-down movement and school tuition firmed further with a 0.6% (6.4% y/y) rise.
Core goods price inflation again was tame owing to a 0.4% (+0.9%) decline in new vehicle prices, a 0.7% decline (NSA, -15.2% y/y) in computer prices, no change in furniture prices (0.3% y/y) and no change in medical care commodities (2.2% y/y). Apparel prices, however, firmed and rose 0.8% (0.0% y/y).
Food prices rose 0.2%s. Fruit & vegetable prices declined for the fourth straight month (+1.6% y/y) and meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases jumped 0.7%. Core chain prices rose 0.5%.
Has the Bond Market Forgotten Oil? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Consumer Price Index | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.6% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | 4.0% | 2.0% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
