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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline as Interest Rates Continue to Increase
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U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases in February
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 14, 2005
Total business inventories rose another 0.5% in February but figures back to 2002 were revised somewhat lower. Nevertheless, the y/y rate of inventory accumulation continued strong at 8.2% yet still lagged the improvement in sales growth. In February the ratio of inventories-to-sales rose slightly from the record low but remained below the year ago level.
Retail inventories rose 0.3% in February for the second month. Excluding autos, retail inventories moderated to the weakest gain in four months. Inventories of furniture & electronics (+7.1% y/y) fell for the second month and general merchandise inventories rose just 0.1% (5.9% y/y). Apparel inventories accumulated strongly (4.0% y/y) for the second month.
Factory sector inventories grew 0.5% following the 1.5% jump in January. Regardless, the 8.6% gain versus last year was the strongest since 1989.
Wholesale inventory accumulation moderated to a 0.6% gain but the double digit rise versus last year was the strongest since 1995. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Overall business sales fell 0.4% (+9.6% y/y) due to lower wholesale sales and a 0.9% decline in factory shipments.
Business Inventories | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.5% | 0.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
Retail | 0.3% | 0.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
Retail excl. Autos | 0.4% | 0.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
Wholesale | 0.6% | 1.0% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
Manufacturing | 0.5% | 1.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |