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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
Retail gasoline prices slipped to $2.88 per gallon last week (+24.2% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Backpedals
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo fell 2.9% (+3.0% y/y) to 68 during June ...
Japan's Loses Its Trade Surplus
In May, Japan has logged its second trade deficit in 13 months and only its third in the last 28 months...
U.S. Industrial Production Slips Unexpectedly
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production eased 0.1% (+3.5% y/y) during May...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Continues to Strengthen
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 25.0 during June, the highest level in eight months...
by Tom Moeller April 14, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week by 10,000 to 330,000 versus an upwardly revised level the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 330,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 74% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose very slightly to 338,000 (-1.7% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 22,000 following the 88,000 rise the prior week that was little revised.
The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.1%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/09/05 | 04/02/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 330 | 340 | -7.6% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,664 | -10.9% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
