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Economy in Brief

Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Down Again
by Tom Moeller April 14, 2005

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week by 10,000 to 330,000 versus an upwardly revised level the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 330,000 claims.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 74% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.

The four week moving average of initial claims rose very slightly to 338,000 (-1.7% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 22,000 following the 88,000 rise the prior week that was little revised.

The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.1%.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 04/09/05 04/02/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Initial Claims 330 340 -7.6% 343 402 404
Continuing Claims -- 2,664 -10.9% 2,926 3,531 3,570
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