Recent Updates
- ** India's RBI Effective XR have rebased from 2004-05=100 to 2015-16=100. We are currently working on these changes. **
- Indonesia: CPI, WPI (Feb)
- Japan: Market Capitalization (Feb)
- Korea: Passenger Car Trade (Q4), MOTIE Trade (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone April 13, 2005
Press reports on today's UK labor force data highlight the increase in unemployment measures. The ILO-defined concept, similar to that in the US, rose in the three months to February by 0.1% to 4.8%. The so-called "claimant count" increased 11,000 in March, with the associated rate rising to 2.7% from 2.6% in February. Wire service headlines and story leads pointed out that this was the largest monthly increase in claimants since May 2003, and noted that it was unfortunate coincidence that the news came on the very day the Prime Minister and the Labour Party begin their quest for reelection next month.
There are offsetting factors, though, that remove some of the sting from these unemployment figures. Firstly, both unemployment rates even at their new, slightly increased levels, remain the second lowest in nearly 30 years. Except for three recent months at 2.6%, the claimant count rate has not been as low as 2.7% since May 1975. The broader ILO unemployment rate was at or above 4.8% from September 1975 through last June; since then, the low was just 4.6% in August. So these latest figures hardly indicate a significant upturn, let alone a major uptrend in unemployment. (The ILO definition represents a three-month moving average centered on January.)
Moreover, employment rose once again and by a larger amount than in the previous several reports. The labor force measure, the number of people saying they have jobs, rose 72,000 to 28.64 million, still another a new high. This too is a 3-month centered moving average for January, compared to the December figure.
The average earnings index (AEI) for February (a 3-month moving average ending in February) was up 4.7% on a year ago, compared with 4.4% in the previous couple of reports. However, the acceleration was due to bonus payments, as the underlying base earnings measure eased to 4.3% from 4.4%.
United Kingdom Seasonally adjusted data |
Mar 2005 | Feb 2005 | Jan 2005 | Dec 2004 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.8* | 4.7* | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 | ||
Claimant Count (thous) | 829 | 818 | 814 | 824 | 854 | 933 | 947 |
Employment (mil) | 28.64* | 28.57* | 28.44 | 28.18 | 27.91 | ||
Change (thous) | +72K | +46K | +0.9% | +0.9% | +0.8% | ||
Average Earnings Index Incl Bonuses: "Headline Rate"(%)** | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | |
Average Earnings Index Ex Bonuses: "Headline Rate" (%)** | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.0 |