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Economy in Brief

Chain Store Sales Up Again
by Tom Moeller April 12, 2005

Chain store sales rose 0.3% for the second week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The increase last week pulled the average level in April about even with March.

During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell by 0.2% (-1.5% y/y), the third consecutive weekly decline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 04/09/05 04/02/05 Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 452.9 451.5 3.9% 4.6% 2.9% 3.6%
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