Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), IP & Capacity Utilization (Dec)
- Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- Canada: CPI (Dec), Intl Transactions in Securities (Nov)
- Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Dec)
- Germany: Hotel and Restaurant Turnover (Nov), Tax Revenues (Q3)
- Turkey: IIP, International Reserves, Foreign Trade Indexes (Nov)
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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
by Tom Moeller April 12, 2005
The March Small Business Optimism Index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell 1.1% from February and is down 4.8% from the peak last November. The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve fell to 16% versus 47% in November.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms raising average selling prices jumped to 25%.
The percentage of firms planning to raise employment fell to 10% though the percentage of firms with one or more job openings held steady at 24%, the highest level since 2001. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between these hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending improved to 36% and continued a recent trend of improvement.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 102.5 | 103.6 | 0.0% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
