Recent Updates
- Euro area: Monetary Developments in the Euro Area (Oct)
- China: Bond Issuance (Q3)
- Lithuania: Consumer Surveys (Nov)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence Survey (Nov), Domestic Supply Price Index, PPI, Home Sales, MFI assets and liabilities, Public
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 12, 2005
The March Small Business Optimism Index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell 1.1% from February and is down 4.8% from the peak last November. The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve fell to 16% versus 47% in November.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms raising average selling prices jumped to 25%.
The percentage of firms planning to raise employment fell to 10% though the percentage of firms with one or more job openings held steady at 24%, the highest level since 2001. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between these hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending improved to 36% and continued a recent trend of improvement.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 102.5 | 103.6 | 0.0% | 104.6 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
