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Economy in Brief
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
The survey of housing market conditions in the U.K. continues to show strength in prices versus weakness...
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Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 11, 2005
The Leading Index of the Big 7 OECD economies slipped 0.3% in February following three consecutive months of gain. The decline reversed the earlier improvement in the index's six month growth rate and it fell to 0.3%, the weakest in nearly two years.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
The 0.1% February decline in the leaders for the European Union (15 countries) was the third in a row and pulled the six month growth rate to 0.5%, it's weakest in nearly two years. The German leaders fell 0.4% m/m and six month growth fell to a barely positive 0.2%. The French leaders slipped for the third consecutive month pulling six month growth to 0.1% and the fourth consecutive monthly decline in the Italian leaders lowered the six month growth rate to -0.9%.
The leading index for the US economy slipped 0.1% following three months of moderate gain leaving six month growth subdued at 1.4%.The leaders for Japan fell 0.8% and six month growth fell to -0.4%.
Growth in the leaders for the UK economy slipped for the fourth consecutive month pulling six month growth solidly negative at -1.6%.The Canadian leaders didn't decline for the first month since last July but six month growth remained a negative 2.7%.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report can be found here.
OECD | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Leading Index | 102.22 | 102.48 | 0.3% | 101.99 | 97.51 | 96.33 |
6 Month Growth Rate | 0.3% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% |