Recent Updates
- Australia: Overseas Arrivals and Departures (Oct)
- Japan: TANKAN: Employment Conditions, Supply and Demand, By Industry Detail (Q4)
- China: Insurance Industry (Nov)
- New Zealand: Performance of Service Index, Composite PMI (Nov), Electricity Generation and Consumption (Q3)
- Iran: Monetary & Credit Aggregates (Oct)
- Israel: Job Vacancy Survey (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounds
Industrial production jumped a greater-than-expected 0.6% (3.9% year-on-year) during November...
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Picks Up
Total business inventories increased 0.6% (5.1% y/y) during October...
U.S. Import Prices Weaken As Petroleum Prices Fall; Export Prices Also Decline
Import prices fell 1.6% (+0.7% y/y) during November following an unrevised 0.5% October rise...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Surges Unexpectedly
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $204.9 billion budget deficit during November...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 206,000 (-7.6% y/y) during the week ended December 8...
by Tom Moeller April 7, 2005
After increasing steadily from the early February low, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week by 19,000 to 334,000 versus an upwardly revised level the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 330,000 claims. The latest level remained 12.8% above the low.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 74% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims was about unchanged at 336,500 (-1.9% y/y) and it is up 9.5% from the low in February.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 90,000 from the upwardly revised level of the prior week but the insured unemployment rate remained at 2.1%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/02/05 | 03/26/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 334 | 353 | -1.5% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,688 | -10.5% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
