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Economy in Brief
U.S. CPI Unchanged in July with Drop in Energy Prices
Consumer prices were unchanged in July after an outsized 1.3% m/m jump in June...
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
German Inflation Rises
The German inflation rate as measured by the HICP accelerated to 8.4% in July...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 7, 2005
After increasing steadily from the early February low, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week by 19,000 to 334,000 versus an upwardly revised level the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 330,000 claims. The latest level remained 12.8% above the low.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 74% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims was about unchanged at 336,500 (-1.9% y/y) and it is up 9.5% from the low in February.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 90,000 from the upwardly revised level of the prior week but the insured unemployment rate remained at 2.1%.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/02/05 | 03/26/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 334 | 353 | -1.5% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,688 | -10.5% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |