Recent Updates
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- US: Public Debt (Feb), Mfrs' Shipments Inventories & Orders (Jan), Productivity & Costs with Revisions (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 7, 2005
After increasing steadily from the early February low, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell last week by 19,000 to 334,000 versus an upwardly revised level the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 330,000 claims. The latest level remained 12.8% above the low.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 74% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims was about unchanged at 336,500 (-1.9% y/y) and it is up 9.5% from the low in February.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 90,000 from the upwardly revised level of the prior week but the insured unemployment rate remained at 2.1%.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/02/05 | 03/26/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 334 | 353 | -1.5% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,688 | -10.5% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |