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Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 5, 2005
Chain store sales inched up 0.3% in the opening week of April and recovered a piece of the prior week's 1.0% drop according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
Sales began the month 0.2% below the March average which rose 1.1% versus the prior month. That gain followed a strong 1.0% rise in February.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell 0.7% (-1.7% y/y) for the second consecutive weekly decline and pulled the measure 2.5% off its peak last year.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 04/02/05 | 03/26/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 451.5 | 450.2 | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
