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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
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Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
U.S. Housing Starts Weaken Unexpectedly
Total housing starts declined 12.3% (-4.2% y/y) during June to 1.173 million (AR)...
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The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index declined 2.5% last week (-12.8% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller April 5, 2005
Chain store sales inched up 0.3% in the opening week of April and recovered a piece of the prior week's 1.0% drop according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
Sales began the month 0.2% below the March average which rose 1.1% versus the prior month. That gain followed a strong 1.0% rise in February.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell 0.7% (-1.7% y/y) for the second consecutive weekly decline and pulled the measure 2.5% off its peak last year.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 04/02/05 | 03/26/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 451.5 | 450.2 | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
