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Economy in Brief
Japan's Inflation Shows Mixed Gains
Japan's inflation rose by 0.4% in July...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in July
Existing home sales declined 5.9% (-20.2% y/y) in July to 4.810 million units...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 1, 2005
Non-farm payrolls rose just 110,000 in March and the prior month's gain was revised lower to 243,000. Consensus expectations had been for payrolls to rise 220,000 last month.
The household survey, however, indicated that the unemployment rate fell back to 5.2% as a result of a 357,000 (+1.5% y/y) worker rise in employment. The number of job losers fell 196,000 (-15.4% y/y). The labor force rose 25,000 (1.0% y/y) but the labor force participation rate held steady at a low 65.8% versus a high in 2000 of 67.3%.
Factory sector payrolls fell 8,000 and the prior month's gain was revised lower. The breadth of hiring gain rose slightly to a still narrow 44.0%. Six-month breadth was only 39.3%.
Private service producing payrolls rose 77,000 (1.9% y/y) in March and the prior month's gain was lowered. The slowdown in hiring versus earlier months spread throughout industry. Professional & business service jobs grew 27,000 (3.8% y/y) and financial jobs edged up 2,000 (2.0% y/y). Jobs in retailing fell 9,700 (+0.6% y/y) though the gain in education & health services jobs firmed to 23,000 (2.3% y/y). Total government employment rose 9,000 (0.8% y/y) but federal government jobs fell 1,000 (-0.4% y/y).
Construction jobs remained firm and rose 26,000 (3.6% y/y).
The index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) rose 0.1% (+2.5% y/y) in March and the 1Q average is 2.0% (AR) ahead of 4Q04.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% but earnings in manufacturing fell 0.2% (2.4% y/y).
Gains in U.S. Productivity: Stopgap Measures or Lasting Change? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
Employment | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Payroll Employment | 110,000 | 243,000 | 1.6% | 1.1% | -0.3% | -1.1% |
Manufacturing | -8,000 | 15,000 | 0.2% | -1.2% | -4.9% | -7.2% |
Average Weekly Hours | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.8 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
Unemployment Rate | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% |