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Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Post Disappointing Increase
Total retail sales improved 0.1% (4.7% y/y) during September...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens to the Largest in Six Years
During FY'18, the federal government ran a 779.0 billion budget versus a 665.8 billion deficit in FY'17...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Increases; Prices Decline
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 21.1 in October...
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Eases
Total business inventories increased 0.5% (4.2% y/y) during August...
Finland’s Inflation Stays Low -- Mostly
Finland is experiencing three distinct forces on the inflation front...
by Tom Moeller April 1, 2005
The University of Michigan's March reading of consumer sentiment at 92.6 about matched Consensus expectations, ended the month down from the preliminary indication of 92.9 and was 1.6% lower than February.
Sentiment has fallen in each of the last three months and is off 10.8% from the January '04 peak. During the last ten years there has been a 75% (inverse) correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the unemployment rate.
The reading of current conditions fell for the second month. The 1.1% decline reflected a sharp decline in sentiment regarding current conditions for buying vehicles.
Consumer expectations slipped for the third consecutive month due to a drop in expected business conditions in six months. This reading is down 27.3% from the January '04 high.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 92.6 | 94.1 | -3.3% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 108.0 | 109.2 | 1.1% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Consumer Expectations | 82.8 | 84.4 | -6.8% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
