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Economy in Brief
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 1, 2005
The Institute of Supply Management reported that the Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector remained about unchanged in March at 55.2 versus 55.3 in February. Consensus expectations had been for 55.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
Only the new orders (57.1) and inventories (54.1) components rose. The production index (56.5) continued its slide from the January '04 peak of 69.0 and the employment index (53.3) reversed all of the prior two months' gains. During the last twenty years there has been a 69% correlation between the level of the ISM Employment Index and the three month growth in factory sector employment.
The vendor deliveries index (52.5) fell sharply to the lowest level since 2003 and the index of export orders (55.4) also fell hard to the lowest in six months.
The prices paid index recovered more than all of the prior two months' decline but remained off the April '04 high of 88.0.
ISM Manufacturing Survey | March | Feb | March '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Index | 55.2 | 55.3 | 62.3 | 60.5 | 53.3 | 52.4 |
New Orders Index | 57.1 | 55.8 | 65.3 | 63.5 | 57.9 | 56.5 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 73.0 | 65.5 | 86.0 | 79.8 | 59.6 | 57.6 |