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Economy in Brief
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Manufacturing PMIs Are Strengthening More in the Developed World
PMIs largely are improving in February...
U.S. Personal Income & Spending Surge With Stimulus Payments in January
Personal income jumped 10.0% (13.1% y/y) last month...
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 31, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 20,000 to 350,000 last week versus an upwardly revised level the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 321,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 74% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 336,000 (-1.2% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped 66,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/26/05 | 03/19/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 350 | 330 | 1.4% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,608 | -11.6% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |