Recent Updates
- Turkey: External Debt Payments (Nov)
- Brazil: PPI (Oct)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Sep)
- Palestine: Depository Corporations Survey (Oct)
- China: Bond Issuance (Q3), Banking Asset and Liabilities (Oct)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Almost Unchanged Since August
New single-family home sales around the country changed very little in October and also in September...
U.S. Q3 Growth GDP Unrevised at 33.1%; Corporate Profits Rebound
The second estimate of Q3 U.S. real GDP indicated that economic activity rose an unrevised 33.1% q/q...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Further in October
Manufacturers’ orders for durable goods increased 1.3% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October...
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise for a Second Week
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose again this past week ending November 21 to 778,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 31, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 20,000 to 350,000 last week versus an upwardly revised level the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 321,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 74% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 336,000 (-1.2% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped 66,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/26/05 | 03/19/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 350 | 330 | 1.4% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,608 | -11.6% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
