Recent Updates
- France: **France Wages and Earnings Rebased to Q2-2017=100**
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, US (Sep)
- Canada: CPI (Aug), Retail Trade (Jul)
- Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Aug), Retail Trade by Province (Jul)
- Norway: International Reserves (Aug), Government Debt (Q2); Finland: Quarterly Sector Accounts, Government Balance (Q2); Denmark: Property Price Indexes (Q2); Iceland: Wage Index (Aug)
- Turkey: IIP & Intl Reserves (Jul); South Africa: Retail Survey (Q4); Mauritius: PPI (Jun); Lebanon: CPI (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
EMU Sinks on New Flash PMI Readings
The EMU PMI sank to its cyclical low in mid-2016 then hit its cycle higher in 2018...
U.S. Financial Accounts See Borrowing Ease with Downswing in Federal Government Needs
Borrowing in U.S. financial markets slowed in Q2 2018...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (6.4% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Hold Steady
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during August were unchanged at 5.340 million (SAAR, -1.5%)....
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Weaken Again
The Philadelphia Fed that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 22.9 during September...
by Tom Moeller March 31, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 20,000 to 350,000 last week versus an upwardly revised level the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 321,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 74% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 336,000 (-1.2% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped 66,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/26/05 | 03/19/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 350 | 330 | 1.4% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,608 | -11.6% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
