Recent Updates
- UK NCI Index (Dec)
- Moldova: Industrial Production (Oct), CPI (Nov)
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- US: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey (Q1), NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Nov)
- Ireland: Property Price Index (Oct), Foreign Reserves (Nov)
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Economy in Brief
OECD LEIs Point to Weakness
OECD LEIs point to weakness ahead for the OECD area as well as separately for the OECD seven largest economies, the euro area, and the U.S....
U.S. Employment and Earnings Gains Weaken Unexpectedly
Labor market strength eased during November...
Wholesale Inventories Grow While Sales Decline
Wholesale inventories increased 0.8% month-on-month (6.9% year-over-year) during October...
U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Expands
Consumer credit outstanding increased $25.38 billion during October...
German IP Takes Surprising October Slip
Germany's industrial production slowed to a gain of only 0.1% in September then dropped by 0.5% in October...
by Tom Moeller March 31, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 20,000 to 350,000 last week versus an upwardly revised level the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 321,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 74% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 336,000 (-1.2% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped 66,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/26/05 | 03/19/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 350 | 330 | 1.4% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,608 | -11.6% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
