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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 31, 2005
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for March jumped 6.5 points to 69.2 and easily surpassed Consensus expectations for a decline to 60.3. The surge was to the highest level since 1988.
The gain suggests improvement in tomorrow's ISM composite manufacturing index. During the last thirty years the correlation between the two indexes has exceeded 90% and there has been a 67% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output.
The employment index surged another 8.3 points to a near record 66.0. During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the level of the employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment. The new orders and the production indexes also surged.
The index of prices paid fell again to the lowest level in a year. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the "core" intermediate goods PPI.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Mar | Feb | Mar '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Barometer | 69.2 | 62.7 | 60.4 | 62.9 | 54.6 | 52.8 |
New Orders | 76.7 | 68.5 | 61.6 | 67.0 | 58.0 | 56.2 |
Prices Paid | 68.2 | 70.1 | 75.3 | 80.1 | 55.8 | 56.9 |