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Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
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Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
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Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
U.S. Import Prices Pulled Lower by Falling Oil Prices
Import prices fell 1.0% during December following a 1.8% November decline...
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves
The NAHB -Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose to 58 during January...
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2005
US real GDP growth in 4Q04 was unrevised at 3.8% (AR). The Consensus expectation had been for a slight upward revision to 4.0% growth.
Reported for the first time, total U.S. operating corporate profits surged 13.5% (12.4% y/y) and the gain was held back by no change in profits earned abroad. Domestic profits grew 16.2% (18.3% y/y) and reflected a 30.1% rebound in financial sector profits which were depressed by hurricanes in 3Q.
Profits earned in the nonfinancial corporate sector grew 10.3% (24.2% y/y), the strongest gain since 2Q03 and were aided by continued profit margin expansion. Labor costs per unit of output fell for the first time in over a year as productivity remained strong. Non-labor costs continued the decline in place for nearly three years. Pricing power improved and real gross value added (output) grew a strong 1.6% (5.3% y/y).
Domestic demand growth was unrevised at 4.5% as growth in business fixed investment in equipment & software held firm at 18.4% (14.5% y/y). Consumer spending growth also held solid at 4.2% (3.8% y/y). Less computers real GDP grew 3.3% (3.8% y/y).
Price inflation was revised up slightly to 2.3%. The price index for domestic demand was revised higher to 2.9% (2.9% y/y) and continued to reflect a strong 5.3% (4.8% y/y) rise at the state & local government level.
Perspectives on Monetary Policy and Central Banking from New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy F. Geithner can be found here.
| Chained 2000$, % AR | 4Q '04 (Final) | 4Q '04 (Prelim. | 3Q '04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Inventory Effect | 0.5% | 0.6% | -1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| Final Sales | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Trade Effect | -1.4% | -1.4% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Chained GDP Price Index | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
