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Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2005
US real GDP growth in 4Q04 was unrevised at 3.8% (AR). The Consensus expectation had been for a slight upward revision to 4.0% growth.
Reported for the first time, total U.S. operating corporate profits surged 13.5% (12.4% y/y) and the gain was held back by no change in profits earned abroad. Domestic profits grew 16.2% (18.3% y/y) and reflected a 30.1% rebound in financial sector profits which were depressed by hurricanes in 3Q.
Profits earned in the nonfinancial corporate sector grew 10.3% (24.2% y/y), the strongest gain since 2Q03 and were aided by continued profit margin expansion. Labor costs per unit of output fell for the first time in over a year as productivity remained strong. Non-labor costs continued the decline in place for nearly three years. Pricing power improved and real gross value added (output) grew a strong 1.6% (5.3% y/y).
Domestic demand growth was unrevised at 4.5% as growth in business fixed investment in equipment & software held firm at 18.4% (14.5% y/y). Consumer spending growth also held solid at 4.2% (3.8% y/y). Less computers real GDP grew 3.3% (3.8% y/y).
Price inflation was revised up slightly to 2.3%. The price index for domestic demand was revised higher to 2.9% (2.9% y/y) and continued to reflect a strong 5.3% (4.8% y/y) rise at the state & local government level.
Perspectives on Monetary Policy and Central Banking from New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy F. Geithner can be found here.
Chained 2000$, % AR | 4Q '04 (Final) | 4Q '04 (Prelim. | 3Q '04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
Inventory Effect | 0.5% | 0.6% | -1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
Final Sales | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
Trade Effect | -1.4% | -1.4% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
Domestic Final Demand | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
Chained GDP Price Index | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% |