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Economy in Brief
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in July
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $211.1 billion in July...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rose Slightly in the Latest Week
Mortgage applications increased 0.2% (-62.9% y/y) from one week earlier...
U.S. Productivity Declines in Q2, Pushing Unit Labor Costs Higher
Nonfarm business sector productivity fell 4.6% (AR) during Q2'22...
U.S. Small Business Optimism Edged Up in July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up to 89.9 in July...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Weakening
Retail gasoline prices declined to $4.04 per gallon (+27.3% y/y) last week...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 24, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 3,000 to 324,000 last week and the level of claims during the prior two weeks was revised slightly higher. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
The revisions raised the increase in claims during the March survey period for nonfarm payrolls to 18,000 (+5.9%) versus the February period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 321,750 (-5.4% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 31,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/19/05 | 03/12/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 324 | 321 | -5.8% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,673 | -11.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |