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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves
The NAHB -Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose to 58 during January...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Strengthen
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index increased 13.5% (1.4% y/y) during the week ended January 11...
EMU Inflation Pokes Above 2% Then Dives
Inflation in the EMU, in its largest economies, and in the U.K., remains subdued...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline Led by Lower Energy Costs
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology fell 0.2% during December...
by Tom Moeller March 24, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 3,000 to 324,000 last week and the level of claims during the prior two weeks was revised slightly higher. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
The revisions raised the increase in claims during the March survey period for nonfarm payrolls to 18,000 (+5.9%) versus the February period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 321,750 (-5.4% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 31,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/19/05 | 03/12/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 324 | 321 | -5.8% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,673 | -11.7% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
