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Economy in Brief
Japan's Inflation Shows Mixed Gains
Japan's inflation rose by 0.4% in July...
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Existing home sales declined 5.9% (-20.2% y/y) in July to 4.810 million units...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell Again in July
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.4% m/m...
U.S. Philly Fed General Activity Index Back to Positive Reading in August
The current general activity diffusion index rose nearly 19 points in August to 6.2...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Slightly Lower
Initial claims for unemployment insurance went down 2,000 in the week ended August 13 to 250,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 23, 2005
Consumer Prices (CPI-U) rose 0.4% in February, the strongest monthly increase since October and exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.3% rise.
A 0.3% gain in prices less food & energy also was the firmest since last September and beat expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Services price inflation firmed slightly last month and caused the acceleration. Less energy, services prices rose 0.3% versus 0.2% gains during the prior four months. Shelter price inflation moved slightly higher to 0.3% (3.0% y/y) and medical care services prices ramped to a 0.6% (5.0% y/y) gain after four months at 0.4%. Public transportation prices were unchanged (-1.0% y/y) following two months of decline but school tuition rose 0.5% (6.5% y/y).
Goods prices less energy were unchanged (0.7% y/y) after a 0.3% January gain despite a 0.4% (5.0% y/y) increase in tobacco prices. New vehicle prices rose just 0.1% (1.1% y/y) while apparel prices (0.0% y/y) and furniture prices (0.3% y/y) both fell 0.2%. Personal computer prices also fell 3.6% (NSA, -15.6% y/y).
Energy prices moved up 2.0%. Gasoline prices rose 3.2% (14.7% y/y) last month and so far in March gasoline prices have moved roughly another 10% higher to $2.11 per gallon. Fuel oil prices rose 1.4% (21.5% y/y) and natural gas & electricity prices rose 0.8% (5.1% y/y).
Food prices rose 0.1% for the second month, the gain held back by another decline in fruit & vegetable prices (+2.3% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases jumped 0.5%. Core chain prices also rose a strong 0.6%.
| Consumer Price Index | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | 2.0% | -1.1% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.5% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
