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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone March 18, 2005
Italy's merchandise trade accounts have turned to a deficit position, with the total balance for 2004 in deficit for the first time since 1992. In January, reported today by Italy's National Institute of Statistics, the deficit was 554 million, seasonally adjusted, nearly the same as December's 609 million. Exports eased 168 million, while imports were off 223 million. Longer trends in exports and imports indicate that adverse developments on both sides of the trade accounts generated the deficit.
Exports drifted downward from late 2001 until early last spring. This slack was reflected in shipments to customers elsewhere in the EU and also to non-EU areas; see the accompanying graph. By type of product, all three major categories were flat: consumer goods, investment goods and intermediate products. The latter two have rebounded in recent months, while consumer goods exports remain sluggish.
Imports didn't expand in that 2001-2003 period, but they did stay steady as exports declined, and they have run up rapidly since last April. The surge in energy prices is an obvious driver of this growth, but notably, consumer, investment and intermediate goods categories have all participated, nearly equally. It will be interesting in coming months to see if the continuing pressure on energy prices will eventually eat into demand for other goods and services, in Italy, but also among Italy's trading partners.
Italy: Trade | Jan 2005 | Dec 2004 | Nov 2004 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Trade Balance, Months SA, Mil.Euros | -554 | -609 | -170 | -1513 | +2751 | +8815 |
Exports, NSA, Yr/Yr % Chg | 11.0 | 18.7 | 15.3 | 7.7 | -2.0 | -1.5 |
Imports, NSA, Yr/Yr % Chg | 7.4 | 20.5 | 19.1 | 9.4 | 0.3 | -1.1 |
Energy, NSA, % of Imports | ||||||
EU25, Months SA, Mil.Euros | -490 | -486 | -117 | -2799 | -197 | +1045 |
Non-EU25, Months SA, Mil.Euros | -64 | -123 | -53 | +1288 | +2949 | +7772 |