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Economy in Brief
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Plummets in August; Lowest Since May '20
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions plunged to -31.3 in August...
U.S. Import and Export Prices Fall in July; Deepest Since April 2020
Import prices fell 1.4% m/m (8.8% y/y) in July...
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
The NAR Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 3.6% in June...
EMU Output Makes Solid Gain in June
The European Monetary Union posted a 0.7% increase for industrial output in June...
U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 18, 2005
The preliminary March reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan fell to 92.9. The 1.3% m/m fall was similar to the declines logged during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a slight rise to 94.8. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
The reading of current conditions fell for the second month. The 1.7% decline was led by a 6.0% drop (-7.3% y/y) in the sentiment of families earning more than $50,000 per year. Sentiment in families earning less than $50,000 per year rose 7.0% (0.8% y/y).
Consumer expectations slipped 0.9% (-5.9% y/y) for the third consecutive monthly decline as the expected change in real income fell 4.7% (-8.0% y/y).
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
Reexamining the Consumption-Wealth Relationship: The Role of Uncertainty from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is Available here.
University of Michigan | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 92.9 | 94.1 | -3.0% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 107.3 | 109.2 | 0.5% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Consumer Expectations | 83.6 | 84.4 | -5.9% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |