The preliminary March reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan fell to 92.9. The 1.3% m/m fall was similar to the declines logged during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a slight rise to 94.8. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.

The reading of current conditions fell for the second month. The 1.7% decline was led by a 6.0% drop (-7.3% y/y) in the sentiment of families earning more than $50,000 per year. Sentiment in families earning less than $50,000 per year rose 7.0% (0.8% y/y).

Consumer expectations slipped 0.9% (-5.9% y/y) for the third consecutive monthly decline as the expected change in real income fell 4.7% (-8.0% y/y).

The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

Reexamining the Consumption-Wealth Relationship: The Role of Uncertainty from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is Available here.