Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
- Serbia: PPI (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2005
The Conference Board reported that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators ticked 0.1% higher in February following an unrevised 0.3% decline the prior month. Six-month growth in the leaders remained negative at -0.2%. Growth in the leaders deeper than -2.5% preceded past US recessions.
The breadth of one month gain amongst the 10 components of the leading index improved markedly to 60% from a downwardly revised 25% in January. Fewer claims for unemployment insurance and higher stock prices were the main positive contributors to last month's leading index increase.
The leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series. Two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods, are estimated.
The coincident indicators recovered 0.4% following a downwardly revised 0.6% decline in January. Six-month growth in the index was 3.3% and during the last ten years there has been an 84% correlation between six month growth in the coincident indicators and two quarter growth in real GDP.
The lagging indicators rose 0.4% and have been moving higher for most of the last year versus declines during the prior three years. Higher C&I loans account for much of the gain.
The ratio of the coincident to the lagging indicators which measures actual economic performance relative to excess rose 0.5% (3.1% y/y).
Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators | Feb | Jan | 6-Month Chg | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% |
Coincident | 0.4% | -0.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.4% | -0.5% |
Lagging | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | -2.0% | -1.9% | -2.3% |