Recent Updates
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- Ireland: Producer & Wholesale Price Indexes (Mar)
- UK: Capital Issuance (Mar)
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- Germany: Federal Budget, PPI, Monthly Tax Revenue (Mar), Short-term Indicator (Feb), Public Sector Finance (Q4)
- Colombia: Imports (Feb); Brazil: IPCA-15 (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 318,000 last week after a revised 18,000 increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 317,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the survey period for March nonfarm payrolls and claims were up 15,000 (5.0%) from the February period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 316,500 (-7.5% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 48,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony titled Future of the Social Security program and economics of retirement can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/12/05 | 03/05/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 318 | 328 | -4.5% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,647 | -14.0% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
