Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales, Personal Income (Oct), Consumer Sentiment (Oct-final), GDP & Corporate Profits (Q3-2nd), Advance Durable Goods, Adv Trade & Inventories, Final Bldg Permits (Oct)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens During October
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods deepened to $80.29 billion during October...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rebound
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index rebounded in the week ended November 20, rising 3.9% w/w...
Japan's Employment Makes Partial Recovery
With a third wave of infection coursing its way through Japan's economy, the labor market continues to make some progress...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply in November, Disappointing Expectations
The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey indicated widespread deterioration during November...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Posts Another Record Increase
The FHFA Price Index jumped 1.7% during September...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 318,000 last week after a revised 18,000 increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 317,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the survey period for March nonfarm payrolls and claims were up 15,000 (5.0%) from the February period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 316,500 (-7.5% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 48,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony titled Future of the Social Security program and economics of retirement can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/12/05 | 03/05/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 318 | 328 | -4.5% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,647 | -14.0% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
