Recent Updates
- US: FRB Chicago National Activity Index (Aug), Texas Manufacturing Survey (Sep)
- Belgium: Business Surveys (Sep)
- Canada Regional: Wholesale Trade by Province (Jul)
- Canada: Wholesale Trade (Jul)
- Mauritius: IP (Q2); Turkey: Business Tendency Survey (Sep), Capacity Utilization Rates (Sep)
- UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Sep)
- Slovenia: Confidence Indicators, Business Tendency
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
EMU Sinks on New Flash PMI Readings
The EMU PMI sank to its cyclical low in mid-2016 then hit its cycle higher in 2018...
U.S. Financial Accounts See Borrowing Ease with Downswing in Federal Government Needs
Borrowing in U.S. financial markets slowed in Q2 2018...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (6.4% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Hold Steady
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during August were unchanged at 5.340 million (SAAR, -1.5%)....
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Weaken Again
The Philadelphia Fed that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 22.9 during September...
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 to 318,000 last week after a revised 18,000 increase the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 317,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the survey period for March nonfarm payrolls and claims were up 15,000 (5.0%) from the February period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 316,500 (-7.5% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 48,000 from the prior week and the insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1%.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony titled Future of the Social Security program and economics of retirement can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/12/05 | 03/05/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 318 | 328 | -4.5% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,647 | -14.0% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
