Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
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- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January
Consumers reduced credit balances further in January...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
German Order Growth Gets Back in Gear Despite the Headwinds
German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% m/m in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley March 15, 2005
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim, Germany, reported that German analysts and institutional investors became slightly more optimistic regarding Germany's economic prospects over the next six months. The proportion of optimists over pessimists rose to 36.3% in March from 35.9% in February. Although this figure is well below the 73.4% reached in December 2003, it is 22.4 percentage points above the recent low of 13.9% recorded in November of last year.
Haver has recently added ZEW data regarding appraisals of current condition and expectations of conditions six months ahead for the Euro zone. For the six month outlook for the Euro Zone as a whole, the proportion of optimists over pessimists rose to 37.3% in March from 36.0% in February. This figures is 42.8 percentage points below the recent peak of 80.1 in January, 2004 and 19.6 points above the low of 17.7 in December 2004. The attached chart compares the expectations for Germany with those for the Euro Zone as a whole. As Germany is such a large component of the Euro Zone, the two series tend to move together.
In addition to appraisals of current conditions and expectations of conditions six months ahead for the entire Euro Zone, Haver has added appraisals of the profit outlook six months ahead for thirteen industries: banking, insurance, vehicles/automotive, chemical/pharmaceutical, steel/metal, electronics, machinery, consumption/ trade, construction, utilities, services, telecommunications and information technology. The March data show that, except for the consumption/trade and construction industries, optimists exceeded pessimists in appraising the profit outlook of all the other industries. The excess of optimists over pessimists varied from 28.8% for the electronics industry to 59.% for information technology.
Germany: ZEW index | Mar 05 | Feb 05 | Mar 04 | M/M dif | Y/Y dif | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Macroeconomic conditions 6 months ahead |
||||||||
Germany | 36.3 | 35.9 | 57.6 | 0.4 | -21.3 | 44.6 | 38.4 | 45.3 |
Euro Zone | 37.3 | 36.0 | 64.3 | 1.3 | -27.0 | 52.1 | 48.9 | 53.1 |
Profit expectations | ||||||||
Banking | 55.5 | 54.9 | 71.2 | 0.6 | -15.7 | 59.6 | 30.5 | -8.4 |
Insurance | 43.1 | 41.2 | 62.2 | 1.9 | -19.1 | 56.5 | 27.8 | 6.6 |
Vehicle/automotive | -2.9 | 3.2 | -6.7 | -6.1 | 3.8 | -0.1 | -8.2 | -6.0 |
Chem./pharmaceutical | 50.5 | 47.5 | 37.8 | 3.0 | 12.7 | 37.5 | 25.8 | 25.4 |
Steel/metal | 45.0 | 47.1 | 41.6 | -2.1 | 3.4 | 48.7 | 13.1 | 4.7 |
Electronics | 28.8 | 27.2 | 49.9 | 1.6 | -21.1 | 46.6 | 19.9 | 11.9 |
Machinery | 45.6 | 46.0 | 46.6 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 53.4 | 7.0 | 5.4 |
Consumption/trade | -0.4 | 9.0 | 7.9 | -9.4 | -8.3 | -0.8 | 2.2 | -8.6 |
Construction | -22.6 | -24.6 | -4.7 | 2.0 | -17.9 | -18.2 | -33.7 | -28.9 |
Utilities | 42.6 | 49.7 | 45.9 | -7.1 | -3.3 | 46.9 | 19.1 | 18.2 |
Services | 52.2 | 55.2 | 62.4 | -3.0 | -10.2 | 58.0 | 35.2 | 25.4 |
Telecommunications | 56.5 | 58.0 | 71.7 | -1.5 | -15.2 | 62.5 | 49.7 | 9.8 |
Information technology | 59.4 | 52.4 | 68.4 | 7.0 | -9.0 | 63.0 | 45.2 | 17.6 |