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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Monthly Treasury, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12...
Passenger Car Registrations Hold to Low Ground in Europe
Passenger car registrations in Europe fell on a year-over-year comparison for the fourth consecutive months in December...
U.S. Import Prices Pulled Lower by Falling Oil Prices
Import prices fell 1.0% during December following a 1.8% November decline...
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves
The NAHB -Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose to 58 during January...
by Tom Moeller March 15, 2005
Total business inventories jumped 0.9% in January following an unrevised 0.2% December rise. The pace of inventory accumulation has accelerated markedly since 2002 but has not kept pace with the improvement in sales growth. Consequently the ratio of inventories-to-sales fell through last year and in January remained at the record low.
Inventory accumulation was strongest in January at the factory level where a 1.3% gain was the largest monthly increase since 1988.
Wholesale inventories jumped 1.1%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Retail inventories rose 0.4% in January following a 0.3% December increase. Accumulation of non-auto retail inventories, however, again was quite strong up 0.8% led by a 19.8% y/y gain in building materials and a 7.8% y/y rise in furniture & electronics.
Overall business sales jumped 0.8% (+11.1% y/y).
| Business Inventories | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.9% | 0.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| Retail | 0.4% | 0.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.8% | 1.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| Wholesale | 1.1% | 0.4% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Manufacturing | 1.3% | 0.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
