Recent Updates
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), Intl Trade (Jan)
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- Canada: International Trade (Jan), Ivey PMI (Feb)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to $68.2 Billion in January
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January...
U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January
Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Louise Curley March 8, 2005
The Economy Watchers Survey shows a less negative attitude toward current and future economic conditions in Japan.
The Economy Watchers Survey is a regional survey of some 2050 individuals actively engaged in various aspects of the economy. They are asked to quantify their opinions on the current and future state of the economy--assign a value of 1, if conditions are better; .75, if rather better; .50, if no change; .25, if rather worse and 0, if worse. A diffusion index is then calculated by multiplying the percentage of respondents to each answer by the point assigned to it. A value of 50 would indicate that those who think things are better or rather better are equal to those who think things are rather worse or worse. A value above 50 indicates an excess of optimists over pessimists, while a value below 50 indicates an excess of pessimists.
The economy watchers raised their appraisal of current conditions in the economy for a second month in February to 45.6 from 45.0 in January. Except for a rise in July, they had steadily reduced their appraisal from May to December, 2004. As for the future, the economy watchers became less negative last December and have increased their appraisal of future conditions in January and February. The February index rose from 48.3 January to 49.9 just barely below the 50.0 level where those with a positive outlook just match those with a negative outlook. Although both the appraisal of current conditions and that of the future are still below year ago levels, the recent turn around in the trends of the appraisals, shown in the attached chart, is encouraging.
Japan: Economy Watchers Survey Diffusion Indexes | Feb 05 | Jan 05 | Feb 04 | M/M % | Y/Y% | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current conditions | 45.6 | 45.0 | 50.1 | 1.33 | -8.98 | 50.0 | 43.5 | 40.4 |
Future conditions | 49.9 | 48.3 | 53.6 | 3.31 | -6.90 | 51.4 | 45.2 | 43.0 |