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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 7, 2005
The JoC-ECRI (Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute) index of industrial commodity prices surged in three out of the last four weeks. The gains lifted the latest reading 2.7% above the February average though the y/y gain was a low 1.2% due to pricing strength this time, last year.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the JoC-ECRI commodity price index and the six month change in factory sector industrial production.
Petroleum prices were up 8.9% last week versus February as a 10.4% rise in crude oil prices to $52.70 bolstered a 3.0% (43.8% y/y) increase in the price of benzene.
Textile prices finally showed some lift and were 2.7% higher versus February led by a 9.7% jump in the price of cotton (-29.5% y/y). Lumber prices also rose a strong 4.4% (9.8% y/y) and prices for lengths of structural composite jumped 6.6% (-21.3% y/y).
Metals prices rose 1.8% in the latest week versus February. Higher aluminum prices led the strength with a 3.1% rise versus last month (15.0% y/y) and zinc prices also surged 3.8% (20.3% y/y).
The KR-CRB (Knight Ridder-Commodity Research Bureau) commodity price index also rose the first of March by 1.6% versus February and it rose further during last week. The index differs from the JoC-ECRI version in that roughly half of the weighting reflects agricultural prices. The latest gains reflect higher prices for foodstuffs (-11.6% y/y) which have offset lower livestock prices (-5.7% y/y).
JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index | 03/04/05 | 12/31/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Items | 116.00 | 111.60 | 1.2% | 112.78 | 91.97 | 79.53 |
Textiles | 67.00 | 64.40 | -3.0% | 65.83 | 65.09 | 59.73 |
Metals | 125.60 | 124.60 | 6.2% | 118.15 | 84.57 | 75.14 |
Miscellaneous | 104.40 | 103.90 | -15.6% | 114.03 | 102.89 | 85.81 |
Petroleum | 264.40 | 216.50 | 53.5% | 207.13 | 135.26 | 110.06 |
KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index | 03/01/05 | 12/28/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
All Commodities | 294.44 | 293.42 | -2.4% | 293.42 | 282.59 | 244.31 |