Recent Updates
- ** India's RBI Effective XR have rebased from 2004-05=100 to 2015-16=100. We are currently working on these changes. **
- Korea: Passenger Car Trade (Q4), MOTIE Trade (Feb)
- Manufacturing PMIs: Japan, China (Feb)
- Australia: MI Inflation Gauge Index, Avg Weekly Job Ads (Feb),
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 7, 2005
The JoC-ECRI (Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute) index of industrial commodity prices surged in three out of the last four weeks. The gains lifted the latest reading 2.7% above the February average though the y/y gain was a low 1.2% due to pricing strength this time, last year.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the JoC-ECRI commodity price index and the six month change in factory sector industrial production.
Petroleum prices were up 8.9% last week versus February as a 10.4% rise in crude oil prices to $52.70 bolstered a 3.0% (43.8% y/y) increase in the price of benzene.
Textile prices finally showed some lift and were 2.7% higher versus February led by a 9.7% jump in the price of cotton (-29.5% y/y). Lumber prices also rose a strong 4.4% (9.8% y/y) and prices for lengths of structural composite jumped 6.6% (-21.3% y/y).
Metals prices rose 1.8% in the latest week versus February. Higher aluminum prices led the strength with a 3.1% rise versus last month (15.0% y/y) and zinc prices also surged 3.8% (20.3% y/y).
The KR-CRB (Knight Ridder-Commodity Research Bureau) commodity price index also rose the first of March by 1.6% versus February and it rose further during last week. The index differs from the JoC-ECRI version in that roughly half of the weighting reflects agricultural prices. The latest gains reflect higher prices for foodstuffs (-11.6% y/y) which have offset lower livestock prices (-5.7% y/y).
JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index | 03/04/05 | 12/31/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Items | 116.00 | 111.60 | 1.2% | 112.78 | 91.97 | 79.53 |
Textiles | 67.00 | 64.40 | -3.0% | 65.83 | 65.09 | 59.73 |
Metals | 125.60 | 124.60 | 6.2% | 118.15 | 84.57 | 75.14 |
Miscellaneous | 104.40 | 103.90 | -15.6% | 114.03 | 102.89 | 85.81 |
Petroleum | 264.40 | 216.50 | 53.5% | 207.13 | 135.26 | 110.06 |
KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index | 03/01/05 | 12/28/04 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
All Commodities | 294.44 | 293.42 | -2.4% | 293.42 | 282.59 | 244.31 |